Whopper forest fire year could be ahead

 

Worldview satellite image shows snow cover

  

 

 

Windy App shows snow depth

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In all honesty, that could be the headline for any year from now on but there is something really alarming happening -- there is barely any snow in Northwestern Ontario. We're talking one inch for Thunder Bay and areas west along the U.S. border all the way to Manitoba. It isn't much better going north toward Red Lake. They have about four inches. Typically we would have two-to-four feet of snow at this point. There also is less than half the usual ice thickness on lakes.

None of this guarantees that the 2024 fire season is going to be a doozy but typically less snowfall indicates the ground will be really dry come spring. And the frost in that ground is only inches deep this year, not two feet like normal. 

Forest fire experts have been on radio and TV during the last couple of weeks saying there still is a chance disaster might be averted. We can still get some deep snow and more importantly, heavy rains next spring. Just like when it comes to predicting ice-out, it all depends on the weather in April.

The odds are, however, that April is going to follow the same weather pattern we have seen for about six months which is warm and dry. 

We should be prepared for a record-early ice-out, record-low lake levels and a record-bad fire year.

There still are 150 forest fires burning from last year in Northern British Columbia and Alberta but Northwestern Ontario mostly escaped last summer. There was a bit of a fire flap early in the season in the Lac Seul area but then we got enough rain to keep things quiet.

There are other worrisome factors at play too. We are heading into another spruce-budworm cycle this summer, something that happens every 40 years. That means large areas with balsam fir will begin a four-year countdown to death. Each year the tiny budworm caterpillars will eat the new growth off the trees which also continue shedding their needles from years earlier. After four years, the trees are barren and there will be large areas of Northwestern Ontario covered with dead balsam fir that burn explosively. That situation will get progressively worse for years and will move with the prevailing wind a little eastward each season. It starts in Northwestern Ontario and eventually ends up in the Maritimes.

An early ice-out would lead to a rapid heating of the ground by the sun and with little frost, trees will begin to grow, sucking out what little moisture there is in the soil. You get the picture.

I did hear one expert give a weather-related prediction today. Thunder Bay's entomologist says get ready for a "bumper tick year." Oh, boy.